Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is carefully navigating a delicate balance between China and the United States, but experts question whether his approach will succeed.

Ishiba has indicated his next priority is a visit to China, with Japanese media reporting that he hopes to make the trip in May or June.

Simultaneously, his administration is working to arrange a potential visit by US President Donald Trump to Japan. According to The Yomiuri Shimbun, Ishiba stated on a Japanese TV program on Feb 9 that Trump may make an official visit during the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, which runs from April to October.

Shigeaki Koga, a former official of Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, noted that Japan-US relations are at a pivotal moment. Historically, Japanese prime ministers from the Liberal Democratic Party were perceived as subservient to the US, with little choice but to follow Washington's lead. However, by signaling an intention to improve relations with China, Ishiba has sought to shift toward a more independent "Japan First" foreign policy, balancing relations between China and the US.

"While 'balancing diplomacy' may sound promising, if executed poorly, it could be perceived as 'playing both sides', leading to a loss of trust from both nations," Koga warned.

This challenge became apparent when Liu Jinsong, director-general of the Department of Asian Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, summoned Japan's Charge d'Affaires in China Yokochi Akira, lodging solemn representations and expressing grave concern and strong dissatisfaction over Japan's recent negative moves related to China during the Japan-US leaders' meeting.

According to a statement, Japan and the US discussed the Diaoyu Islands and South China Sea issues, and the Taiwan question.

Despite the diplomatic tensions, Koga pointed out that Japan's strategic position between the two major powers could be an advantage if leveraged wisely. "Recognizing this geopolitical advantage is crucial for Japan to steadily take steps toward a truly independent foreign policy," he said.

However, analysts argue that Ishiba's diplomatic balancing act appears far more complex than it seems. His recent visit to the US, which on the surface seemed like a routine diplomatic engagement, was, in reality, a carefully orchestrated effort to appease Washington.

Little choice

The US remains Japan's key ally and a cornerstone of its economic and security framework. Given Washington's aggressive trade policies and pressure on Japan to boost defense spending, the Ishiba administration has little choice but to take steps to placate the US and avoid greater friction.

Following Trump's announcement of a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports starting March 12, Tokyo is reportedly considering sending Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto to Washington to seek an exemption.

According to Tokyo-based international relations analyst Yang Wenkai, Ishiba's current strategy toward the US is to maintain a low profile and keep Japan off Trump's radar for as long as possible. "He hopes to cultivate a personal rapport with Trump, akin to the approach taken by the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, as a means of crisis management."

However, Yang cautioned that such a relationship cannot be built on mere wishful thinking.

"Japan faces a dual challenge: on the one hand, increasing geopolitical tensions necessitate securing American protection, while on the other, its deep economic ties with China make severing relations with Beijing impractical," Yang said.

In a sign of Japan's economic pragmatism, a delegation of approximately 200 Japanese business leaders visited China on Feb 16-21 to explore bilateral economic cooperation.

Chen Zilei, director of the Japanese Economic Research Center at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, pointed out that Japan desperately needs US support for its "Indo-Pacific" strategy. However, Washington's commitments often lack concrete assurances. While Japan prioritizes countering China strategically, the US remains focused on securing tangible economic and political benefits.

"It is evident that Japan is attempting to position China as a hypothetical adversary to reinforce its ties with the US. However, even with US commitments, Japan still lacks the necessary security guarantees. As a result, it is likely that Ishiba will continue pursuing a balanced diplomatic approach between China and the US," Chen said.

As Japan grapples with this diplomatic conundrum, the question remains: Can Ishiba maintain equilibrium between the two major powers without alienating either?

"Walking this tightrope will be the defining foreign policy challenge in the coming years," Chen said.

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