三级aa视频在线观看-三级国产-三级国产精品一区二区-三级国产三级在线-三级国产在线

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

China's Jan trade tumble may prove short-lived

(Xinhua) Updated: 2015-02-10 14:17

BEIJING - A trade tumble in China in January has sparked concerns about one of the main growth engines of the world's second-largest economy. However, economists say the data is "distorted" and the sharp contraction of exports and imports may prove short-lived.

Trading in January proved much weaker than expected, with exports falling by 3.2 percent and imports plunging 19.7 percent, General Administration of Customs (GAC) data showed on Sunday.

But UBS economist Wang Tao said the headline readings are "on the surface too misleading to provide an accurate assessment of trends to come in the year ahead."

Other economists interviewed by Xinhua forecast China's 2015 foreign trade would grow steadily thanks to a better trade environment, stronger policy support for the "Belt and Road" initiatives, the establishment of more free trade zones and booming cross-border e-commerce.

Despite the disappointment of the headline figures, external demand and underlying export growth stayed largely firm, and imports remained anemic but did not collapse, Wang stressed.

Wang said UBS maintains its 2015 China trade forecasts, which predict export growth of 7.5 percent and import growth of 3 percent for the whole year.

For imports, which fell 19.7 percent from a year earlier, the largest drop in more than five years, Wang said slumping global commodity prices took a heavier toll on import growth.

Liu Xuezhi, a researcher with the Bank of Communications, attributed the sharp decrease in imports to sharp decline in commodities prices, ongoing industrial upgrades and efforts to phase out overcapacity.

Concerning exports, Wang attributed the deterioration to "temporary distortions from a base effect and Chinese New Year, along with the USD's large movement against other currencies."

Last year's high base may have cut around 2 to 3 percentage points from headline annual growth of exports for China, according to UBS.

Volatile Chinese New Year effects, which are hard to predict and quantify accurately, probably further dragged down headline growth of exports, as the peak of pre-Chinese New Year trade activity may not occur until early to mid-February, said Wang.

The festival, an important time for family reunions, occurs in January or February along with a 40-day travel rush. It is due on Feb 19 and the rush is estimated to involve 2.8 billion trips this year.

January's sharp deterioration in exports doesn't quite square with the fundamentals of China's external demand, which seems to have remained largely solid, according to a research note written by Wang.

The US non-manufacturing ISM index edged higher and January's employment report pointed to ongoing labor market improvements, while business confidence in Europe has kept climbing, partially boosted by its QE program.

The Euro has been depreciating against the US dollar by a larger margin than the renminbi against the US dollar, resulting in real depreciation of the renminbi against the euro and denting the price advantages of Chinese product, said Ding Chun, a research fellow at Shanghai-based Fudan University.

However, the European economy is poised to recover in the second half of this year, which will boost China's export to Europe, Ding said.

In addition, government policies will also help support export growth.

GAC head Yu Guangzhou said the country will further balance the quality and quantity of export expansion with more policy support for competitive products and new industries, so as to improve the role of Chinese companies in the global value chain.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲欧美精品一区二区 | 黄色片在线免费观看 | 国产福利视频在线播放 | 国产婷婷色综合成人精品 | 一级做a免费观看大全 | 一级一级特黄女人精品毛片视频 | 亚洲六区| 欧美一级高清在线观看 | 最新国产麻豆精品 | 欧美成人一级视频 | 日韩18视频在线观看 | 欧美一级在线观看视频 | 免费一级片网站 | www.黄色片.com | 中国一级片免费看 | 国语自产免费精品视频在 | 精品成人资源在线观看 | 亚洲国产精久久久久久久春色 | 国产91精品一区二区麻豆网站 | 欧美国产人妖另类色视频 | 国产美女在线精品观看 | 黑人爱爱视频 | 美国黑人特大一级毛片 | 一级做a爰片久久毛片16 | 欧美在线网 | 亚洲视频在线观看网站 | 国模精品视频一区二区三区 | 狠狠色丁香婷婷综合久久来 | 欧美成 人激情视频 | 丁香婷婷开心激情深爱五月 | 色综合色综合色综合网址 | 一区二区在线观看视频 | 免费人成又黄又爽的视频在线 | 国产成人毛片精品不卡在线 | 91老司机免费精品观看 | 亚洲在线不卡 | 欧美成人精品一区二三区在线观看 | 久久99热国产这有精品 | 亚洲免费视频网站 | 日本xxx片免费高清在线 | 久久夜色精品国产亚洲 |